Important Facts of the News
- A new dataset has been released through the Human Climate Horizons platform by UNDP and the Climate Impact Lab.
- Out of 176 assessed countries, 161 are projected to face declining staple crop yields by the end of the century.
- The dataset covers six key crops: maize, rice, wheat, soy, cassava, and sorghum.
- Analysis examines impacts under moderate and high emissions scenarios.
- Low Human Development Index countries could face median yield losses of 25 to 30 percent by 2100 under very high emissions.
- Some major global breadbasket regions could see yield drops reaching 40 percent.
- The projections include data for over 19,000 subnational regions across more than 100 countries.
- Climate impacts are assessed across three periods: 2020-2039, 2040-2059, and 2080-2099.
- Reducing emissions to moderate trajectories would cut projected crop losses by more than half.
New Global Data Highlights Rising Agricultural Risk
A new set of global climate projections indicates that rising temperatures are set to reduce agricultural productivity in most parts of the world, placing additional pressure on food systems and human well-being. The findings are part of the Human Climate Horizons data platform developed by the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report Office in collaboration with the Climate Impact Lab.
Widespread Decline in Staple Crop Production
The data show that more than 90 percent of evaluated countries are likely to experience lower yields of key food crops by the end of this century, even after considering how farmers may adapt to changing conditions. The projections focus on six widely consumed crops that form a foundation of global food supply. By connecting climate trends with agricultural outcomes, the dataset provides a detailed view of how food-producing regions may shift under different emissions pathways.
Regions with Lower Resources Face Greater Challenges
Countries with lower levels of human development are expected to face some of the steepest declines. In many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, farming remains heavily dependent on rainfall and limited irrigation infrastructure, making agricultural systems highly sensitive to temperature changes. Under severe warming conditions, national yield declines in these regions could approach 25 to 30 percent by the final decades of the century.
Global Breadbasket Regions Also at Risk
The analysis also indicates that several major crop-producing regions, often referred to as global breadbaskets, are not protected from these climate pressures. Under more extreme warming, these regions could encounter declines nearing 40 percent, which may affect food prices, trade patterns, and broader economic stability.
Emissions Reductions Can Soften the Impact
The research reinforces the significance of climate action. If countries reduce emissions to more moderate levels, projected crop losses could drop to less than half of what is expected under high emissions conditions. This pattern holds across both high-income and low-income countries, underscoring the shared benefits of mitigation efforts.
A Call for Human-Centred Climate Strategies
The findings align with ongoing global discussions that place human well-being and food security at the centre of climate policy. Ensuring that populations retain access to reliable and nutritious food remains essential for development and dignity. The data suggest that policy planning, adaptation investments, and emissions reductions will play key roles in shaping future outcomes.