Important Facts
- A well-marked low-pressure area persists over the northeast Bay of Bengal and nearby regions including east-central Bay of Bengal, Myanmar, and Bangladesh coasts as of 0830 hours IST on November 4, 2025.
- This system originated from a low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Myanmar, moving north-northwestwards.
- It is expected to shift north-northwestwards along and off the Myanmar-Bangladesh coasts in the next 24 hours.
- Heavy rainfall of 7-11 cm recorded at isolated spots in Saurashtra and Kutch, specifically 8 cm at Anjar in Kutch district, during the past 24 hours ending 0830 hours IST on November 4.
- A Western Disturbance will affect northwest India on November 4 and 5, 2025.
- Upper air cyclonic circulations present over south Bangladesh and neighbourhood, west-central Bay of Bengal off coastal Andhra Pradesh, and north Haryana and neighbourhood in lower tropospheric levels.
- The Western Disturbance appears as a cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan and neighbourhood with a trough aloft in middle tropospheric westerlies along longitude 68°E north of latitude 30°N.
- Isolated to scattered light or moderate rainfall or snowfall expected over the Western Himalayan region and light rain over adjoining plains on November 4 and 5.
- Thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds up to 40-50 kmph likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad on November 4, and with lightning over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on the same day.
- Thunderstorms with lightning forecasted for Konkan and Goa on November 5 and 6, and Madhya Maharashtra from November 4 to 6.
- Similar activity over East Madhya Pradesh on November 4, and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura on November 4 and 5.
- Light to moderate rainfall or thunderstorms at most or many places with isolated heavy falls over Tamil Nadu from November 4 to 6, extending to many or some places up to November 8.
- Rain or thunderstorms at many or some places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, and Rayalaseema from November 4 to 6; North Interior Karnataka on November 4 and 5; South Interior Karnataka from November 4 to 7; Coastal Karnataka on November 6 and 7.
- Lightning and gusty winds up to 30-40 kmph possible over Telangana on November 4.
- No major shift in minimum temperatures over northwest India and Madhya Pradesh for the next 24 hours, followed by a drop of 2-4°C over the subsequent three days.
- Fishermen advised to avoid Andaman Sea, northeast Bay of Bengal, many parts of east-central Bay of Bengal, and areas along and off Bangladesh and Myanmar coasts from November 4 to 6, extending warnings up to November 9 in some zones.
- Delhi/NCR saw maximum temperatures of 29-31°C and minimum of 15-18°C in the past 24 hours, near normal, with mainly clear skies and westerly winds up to 16 kmph.
Weather patterns across India are showing notable activity as a prominent low-pressure system dominates the Bay of Bengal region. This development has prompted various alerts for different parts of the country, influencing daily life and agricultural planning in multiple states.
Current Weather Systems in Focus
The meteorological setup includes a distinct low-pressure zone that has intensified in the northeast Bay of Bengal. This area extends to adjacent sections of the east-central bay as well as coastal zones near Myanmar and Bangladesh. Observations confirm its position at the start of November 4 morning. The system has evolved from its previous location further south and east, gradually progressing in a north-northwest direction. Forecasters anticipate it will continue this path close to the shores of Myanmar and Bangladesh over the coming day.
Additional atmospheric features contribute to the overall picture. Cyclonic circulations in the upper air are noted over southern parts of Bangladesh and surrounding areas, another off the Andhra Pradesh coast in the west-central bay, and one more over northern Haryana. These elements interact with a incoming Western Disturbance positioned over northern Pakistan, featuring a trough in the mid-level westerlies.
Recent Rainfall Observations
In the last day, certain pockets in Saurashtra and Kutch experienced substantial downpours. One location, Anjar in Kutch, registered 8 cm of rain. Such isolated heavy spells highlight the uneven distribution often seen in these weather events.
Regional Weather Expectations
Different parts of India face varied conditions due to these systems. In the northwest, the approaching disturbance will bring sporadic light to moderate showers, including snow in the Western Himalayas, along with possible rain in the nearby lowlands on both November 4 and 5. Accompanying this, stormy conditions with lightning and strong gusts could occur in the Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad area on the first day, while Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand may see lightning activity.
Moving to western regions, Konkan and Goa along with Madhya Maharashtra are slated for thunderstorm possibilities extending over several days starting from November 4. Central areas like eastern Madhya Pradesh will likely encounter similar thunderstorms on November 4. Northeastern states such as Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura are also under watch for thunderstorms on November 4 and 5.
Focus on Southern India
South peninsular areas, particularly Tamil Nadu, stand out with prospects of widespread light to moderate rains or thunderstorms, including some heavy isolated bursts from November 4 through 6, continuing in a reduced intensity up to November 8. Neighbouring Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema share this outlook until November 6. Interior Karnataka divisions, both north and south, along with coastal parts, will experience rains on specified dates within the week. Telangana might face lightning accompanied by winds reaching 30-40 kmph on November 4.
Temperature Trends and Advisories
Temperature-wise, minimum values in northwest India and Madhya Pradesh should remain steady initially before cooling down slightly in the following days. This gradual change could affect early morning conditions in these zones.
For those at sea, safety remains paramount. Mariners should steer clear of specified bay areas, including the Andaman Sea and zones near Bangladesh and Myanmar coasts, at least until November 6, with extended cautions in place.
Delhi and NCR Specific Outlook
Residents in the national capital region have enjoyed relatively stable temperatures recently, with highs around 29 to 31 degrees Celsius and lows between 15 and 18 degrees, aligning with seasonal norms. Skies stayed mostly clear with moderate westerly breezes. Looking ahead, November 4 brings partly clear conditions turning hazy in the evening, with highs slightly below average. The next day shifts to mainly clear with mist, temperatures normalizing. By November 6 and 7, mornings may have shallow fog, with a mix of normal and slightly varied readings, and light northwesterly winds.
Agricultural communities are urged to secure crops against potential wind damage, providing supports to plants vulnerable to lodging. These steps help mitigate impacts from gusty conditions associated with thunderstorms.
Overall, the well marked low pressure Bay of Bengal continues to drive the nation’s weather narrative, necessitating vigilance across affected regions. Monitoring official updates ensures preparedness for any shifts in intensity or path.
Staying informed about these developments aids in planning daily activities, from travel to farming. Local authorities and residents in prone areas should heed colour-coded alerts for timely action, especially where heavy rains or storms are indicated.
The interplay of these systems underscores the dynamic nature of India’s monsoon-influenced climate, even in the post-monsoon phase. As patterns evolve, continued observations will refine predictions, helping communities adapt effectively.