Hey there, if you’re keeping an eye on the weather across India, we’ve got some important updates for you. Let’s talk about what happened last week and what’s coming up in the next couple of weeks, from today up to December 10. I’ll break it down simply so you can plan accordingly, whether you’re in the south dealing with rains or up north facing the chill.
Looking Back at Last Week’s Weather
Last week wrapped up with some notable events. A storm named Senyar developed over the Strait of Malacca and parts of northeast Indonesia on November 26. It started as a low pressure area on the 22nd, grew stronger into a well-marked low on the 23rd, became a depression on the morning of the 25th, and then a deep depression that night. By the morning of the 26th, it had turned into a full cyclonic storm. It moved across the Indonesian coast around 4.9 degrees north between 7:30 and 8:30 AM Indian time, with winds blowing at 70 to 80 kmph and gusts up to 90 kmph. At 8:30 AM on the 26th, it was positioned over coastal northeast Indonesia near 4.9 degrees north and 97.8 degrees east. This led to sudden floods and landslides in north Sumatra. Also, there were spots of heavy rain over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on November 20.
Down in the extreme southern parts of the peninsula, heavy to very heavy rains kept going due to a couple of systems. One was a low pressure from the previous week over the Lakshadweep Islands and nearby Maldives, which shifted to the southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep on November 20 before fading out by 5:30 PM that day. Then, another low pressure formed over the Comorin area and nearby southwest Bay of Bengal and Sri Lanka at 5:30 AM on November 25. It strengthened into a well-marked low over the southwest Bay of Bengal, southeast Sri Lanka, and equatorial Indian Ocean by 5:30 AM on the 26th, and became a depression centered at 11:30 PM on the 26th over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka coast near 5.9 degrees north and 82.6 degrees east. These systems brought isolated extremely heavy downpours over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal on the 23rd and 24th. Very heavy rains hit isolated areas there on the 20th, 22nd, and 25th. Heavy rains also occurred in spots over Lakshadweep on the 20th and 24th, Kerala and Mahe on the 22nd and 24th, Rayalaseema on the 22nd, and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal again on the 26th.
Cold conditions were around too. The severe cold wave from the week before lingered in west and central India until November 21, with severe cold in isolated pockets of west Madhya Pradesh on the 20th and 21st, Telangana and Madhya Maharashtra on the 20th. After that, it eased up, but a new cold wave popped up in isolated places over Punjab and Jharkhand on the 26th.
Fog was an issue as well. Very dense fog covered isolated areas in west Uttar Pradesh on the 23rd and 24th. Dense fog appeared in spots over Himachal Pradesh on the 20th, 24th, and 26th; Odisha on the 20th and from the 22nd to 25th; west Uttar Pradesh on the 22nd; east Uttar Pradesh on the 22nd and 23rd; Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura on the 25th; and Assam and Meghalaya on the 26th.
Rainfall Overview for the Week and Season
For the week ending November 26, the overall rainfall across India was down by 23 percent from the usual average. Looking at the post-monsoon season from October 1 to November 26, it was up by 25 percent overall. Breaking it down by regions: East and Northeast India had a weekly drop of 77 percent but a seasonal rise of 9 percent. Northwest India saw a 99 percent weekly deficit but an 85 percent seasonal surplus. Central India also had a 99 percent weekly drop but a 47 percent seasonal increase. The South Peninsula had a 26 percent weekly gain and a 9 percent seasonal uptick.
Broader Climate Patterns
On a larger scale, weak La Nina is happening over the equatorial Pacific right now. Models suggest about a 62 percent chance it sticks around through the northern winter season of 2025-26, then shifts to neutral after that. Over the Indian Ocean, negative dipole conditions are present, but forecasts show they might ease up and move to neutral during the same period. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is in phase 7 with strong amplitude, and it’s expected to stay that way for the next week.
What’s Ahead for the Next Two Weeks
Starting with the first week from today to December 3. There’s a cyclonic storm called Ditwah centered at 11:30 AM today over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka coast near 6.9 degrees north and 81.9 degrees east. It’s close to the east of Pottuvil in Sri Lanka, about 90 km south-southeast of Batticaloa, 120 km northeast of Hambantota, 200 km south-southeast of Trincomalee, 610 km south-southeast of Puducherry, and 700 km south-southeast of Chennai. It should head north-northwest across the southwest Bay of Bengal and Sri Lanka coast, reaching near north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and south Andhra Pradesh coasts by early morning on November 30.
The remnant depression from Senyar is over the Strait of Malacca near 3.6 degrees north and 99.8 degrees east at 11:30 AM today, about 210 km south-southwest of George Town in Malaysia, 340 km east-southeast of Kuta Makmur in Indonesia, 850 km east-southeast of Nancowry, and 990 km southeast of Car Nicobar. It will likely move east and weaken into a well-marked low in the next 12 hours.
There’s also a western disturbance as a cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan and adjoining Afghanistan in the lower and middle atmosphere levels, plus an induced circulation over southwest Rajasthan in the lower levels.
Because of these, expect heavy to very heavy rain over Tamil Nadu from today to November 30, with some extremely heavy spots on the 28th and 29th. Rayalaseema might see heavy to very heavy from the 28th to December 1, with extremes on the 30th. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam could have heavy to very heavy from the 28th to December 2, with extremes on the 30th. Heavy rain is also possible over Kerala and Mahe from the 27th to 29th, Telangana on the 30th and December 1, and south interior Karnataka on the 29th.
Thunderstorms with lightning are probable over Tamil Nadu from today to December 1, Kerala and Mahe from the 27th to 29th, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam from the 28th to December 1, north interior Karnataka on the 30th, south interior Karnataka on the 29th and 30th, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands with gusty winds of 30-40 kmph on the 28th and 29th, and 40-50 kmph today.
Overall, rain might be less than usual over most of India this week.
Week Two Outlook
For December 4 to 10, a western disturbance could bring light to moderate scattered or fairly widespread rain or snow over the western Himalayas on some days. Easterly or northeasterly winds might cause light to moderate isolated or scattered rain over extreme south peninsular India, especially Tamil Nadu and Kerala, on some days. Rain activity should be below normal across the country, except near normal in the western Himalayas and east and northeast India.
Temperature and Other Alerts
In the past 24 hours up to 8:30 AM today, minimum temperatures were below 6 degrees Celsius in many places over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh, and isolated spots in Uttarakhand. They ranged from 6 to 10 degrees in many areas of Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, some in Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan, and isolated in west Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, and Bihar. The lowest was 5.7 degrees at Hisar in Haryana.
Minimums were below normal by 1.6 to 3 degrees in many places over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, and isolated in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and north Chhattisgarh.
Looking ahead for the first week: Minimum temperatures might rise by 2-3 degrees over northwest India for the next two days, then drop by the same. Over central India, expect a gradual fall by 2-3 degrees for the next two days, then steady. East India could see a rise by 2-3 degrees for three days, then no big change. West India likely no change in the next 24 hours, then a fall by 2-3 degrees over four days. Northeast India should stay about the same for seven days.
Dense fog is expected in isolated pockets of Himachal Pradesh and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi from the 28th to 30th, and east Rajasthan from the 30th to December 1. Cold wave conditions in isolated pockets of Punjab on the 28th and 29th, and Rajasthan on December 3 and 4.
For the second week, minimums could be below normal by 2-4 degrees over most of the country, except above normal by 1-3 degrees in northeast India and the western Himalayas. Cold waves might hit isolated spots in north Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana on some days. Dense fog could occur in isolated pockets of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, and Rajasthan on some days.
Stay safe out there, especially if you’re in areas prone to heavy rain or cold snaps. Keep checking for updates as things can change quickly with weather.