What You Need to Know About Montha’s Path
The storm has been shifting north-northwest at about 12 kmph over the last few hours. As of this morning around 8:30, it was centered roughly at 14.9 degrees north and 82.9 degrees east in the west-central Bay of Bengal. That’s about 160 km south-southeast of Machilipatnam, 240 km from Kakinada, 320 km from Visakhapatnam, and a good 530 km from Gopalpur in Odisha. It’s not slowing down, and coastal folks should brace for impact.
Meanwhile, there’s another system brewing out west. A depression in the east-central Arabian Sea has nudged northeast at 12 kmph. It’s hanging around 17.1 degrees north and 67.8 degrees east, which puts it 500 km south-southwest of Veraval in Gujarat, 580 km west-southwest of Mumbai, and farther out from Panjim in Goa, Aminidivi in Lakshadweep, and Mangalore in Karnataka. Over the next day and a half, it should keep heading north-northeast across that stretch of sea. Not a huge threat right now, but it could stir up some choppy waters and scattered showers.
Rainfall That’s Set to Soak the Region
These weather patterns are teaming up to dump a lot of water in several spots. Today, look for isolated pockets of extremely heavy downpours over coastal Andhra Pradesh including Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, and southern Chhattisgarh. That’s the kind of rain that can turn roads into rivers quick. Odisha will see similar intensity today and tomorrow.
Over the past day up to 8:30 this morning, we’ve already had some serious soaking. Isolated spots in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam clocked extremely heavy falls. Heavy to very heavy amounts, between 7 and 20 cm, hit isolated areas in east Rajasthan, Gujarat, and west Madhya Pradesh. And heavy rains from 7 to 11 cm popped up here and there in Rayalaseema, Kerala including Mahe, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu.
Looking ahead, south peninsular India is in for light to moderate showers or thunderstorms in most places, with heavier stuff isolated over Kerala and Mahe today and tomorrow, coastal and north interior Karnataka today, and Telangana through the 30th. Very heavy falls could lash Tamil Nadu today, then coastal Andhra Pradesh with Yanam, Rayalaseema, and Telangana tomorrow. Expect thunderstorms packing lightning and gusts up to 30-50 kmph in Kerala and Mahe, coastal Karnataka, north interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep today and tomorrow; Telangana through November 1; Tamil Nadu today; Rayalaseema today and tomorrow; and coastal Andhra Pradesh with Yanam through the 30th.
Broader Impacts Across India
Heading east and central, expect light to moderate rain or storms at a few spots, with isolated heavy over west Madhya Pradesh through the 30th, east Madhya Pradesh through the 31st, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh through the 30th, Gangetic West Bengal through the 31st, Jharkhand from tomorrow to the 31st, Bihar same window, Odisha through the 30th, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal with Sikkim on the 30th and November 1. Very heavy isolated over Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh tomorrow, east Madhya Pradesh on the 30th, Bihar on the 30th and 31st, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal with Sikkim on the 31st.
Extremely heavy is possible in southern Chhattisgarh today. Thunderstorms with lightning and 30-40 kmph gusts could roll through Madhya Pradesh for the next five days, Andaman and Nicobar on the 29th and 30th, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal with Sikkim, Bihar, and Gangetic West Bengal through the 31st, and Odisha for five days. Stronger 40-50 kmph gusts in Vidarbha today and tomorrow, and Andaman and Nicobar today. Thundersqualls up to 60-70 kmph in Chhattisgarh today, easing to 50-60 kmph tomorrow.
In west India, light to moderate rain or storms at many places, isolated heavy over Konkan and Goa, Marathwada today and tomorrow, Madhya Maharashtra tomorrow, and Gujarat region through the 31st. Very heavy isolated in Saurashtra and Kutch through the 31st. Gusty thunderstorms up to 30-40 kmph across the region for five days.
Northeast sees light to moderate at many spots, isolated heavy over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam with Meghalaya from the 30th to November 2, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura from the 31st to November 2. Very heavy isolated in Assam with Meghalaya and Arunachal on the 31st and November 1. Gusts with lightning up to 30-40 kmph from the 30th to November 1.
Northwest has light to moderate at isolated places, heavy over east Rajasthan today and east Uttar Pradesh on the 30th and 31st. Very heavy isolated in east Uttar Pradesh on the 30th. Thunderstorms with gusts up to 30-40 kmph in west Uttar Pradesh on the 30th, east Uttar Pradesh on the 30th and 31st, and east Rajasthan today and the 30th. Temperatures stay steady for the next five to seven days.
Coastal Warnings: Winds, Waves, and Surges
Out in the southeast Bay of Bengal, gale winds of 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph will stick around the west-central and nearby southwest areas until tonight. Squally 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph in the northwest Bay now, ramping to 60-70 kmph gusting 80 kmph from this evening to tomorrow morning, then easing to 35-45 kmph gusting 55 kmph by tomorrow morning’s end.
Along and off Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts, gales at 60-70 kmph gusting 80 kmph now, jumping to 90-100 kmph gusting 110 kmph from evening to early tomorrow, then dropping to 60-70 kmph gusting 80 kmph by noon tomorrow along north Andhra and Yanam, squally 45-55 kmph gusting 65 kmph by evening and fading after.
Off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, squally 45-55 kmph gusting 65 kmph easing gradually. Along Odisha coast, similar squally now on the south, building to 60-70 kmph gusting 80 kmph from evening to early tomorrow, then back to 45-55 kmph gusting 65 kmph until evening tomorrow and easing. North Odisha: 50-60 kmph gusting 70 kmph evening to early tomorrow, 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph until evening, then down. West Bengal coast: 35-45 kmph gusting 55 kmph through tomorrow.
Sea states are high to very high in west-central and southwest Bay, very high in west-central from morning to early tomorrow, then high to very rough by noon and very rough to rough after. Northwest Bay moderate to rough now, very rough to high morning to tomorrow morning, rough by the 30th morning.
Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts: very rough to high now, high to very high from morning, very high evening to early tomorrow, high by noon tomorrow, very rough to rough after. Odisha: rough to very rough, high morning to early tomorrow, very rough to rough after. Tamil Nadu-Puducherry: rough to very rough today. West Bengal: rough through tomorrow, improving after.
Storm surge could push about 1 meter above tide, flooding low-lying coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam around landfall. Fishermen, stay ashore: no venturing into southwest and central Bay, off Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh-Yanam and Odisha until tomorrow, or West Bengal today and tomorrow. If you’re out there, head back now.
Potential Disruptions and How to Stay Safe
In Andhra Pradesh including Yanam districts like Tirupati, Annamayya, Nellore, YSR Kadapa, Prakasam, Bapatla, Chittor, Nandyal, Palnadu, Guntur, Krishna, East and West Godavari, Konaseema, Kakinada, Anakapalli, Alluri Seetharama Raju, Visakhapatnam, Eluru, Vizianagaram, Srikakulam, Parvati Puram Manyam, and south Odisha coasts like Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Malkangiri, Koraput, Nabarangpur, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Nuapada, Boudh, expect major hits to thatched homes and huts, roofs lifting, metal sheets airborne, power and comms lines down, kutcha roads wrecked with some pucca damage, escape routes flooded, tree branches snapping, big trees uprooting, banana and papaya plantations trashed, crops like paddy, horticulture, and orchards swamped or wind-battered, low areas inundated from rain and flash floods, urban road flooding and underpass closures, visibility drops, traffic snarls from water and winds, possible landslides or mudslides, river flooding in spots (check CWC site), embankment breaches, salt pan damage, plus coastal flooding and erosion in north Andhra Pradesh and Yanam.
East-central Arabian Sea has squally 45-55 kmph gusting 65 kmph around the depression center until today, same over east-central and southeast Arabian Sea until today, northeast Arabian Sea and off Maharashtra-Gujarat until the 30th. Seas rough to very rough in east-central until the 30th, southeast until today, moderate to rough in northeast and off Maharashtra-Gujarat until today, rough to very rough 29th-30th. Lakshadweep-Comorin and off Karnataka-Kerala: rough until today.
For Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Konkan-Goa, and Gujarat: tree branches breaking, winds and rain hitting plantations, horticulture, standing crops; minor damage to kutcha houses, walls, huts, roads; traffic hit on roads and rails; flash floods, landslides, mudslides, landslips, water logging, inundation in low spots; visibility cuts; transport regs; small boats tossed.
Actions? Halt all fishing. Move coastal dwellers to safe spots, stay indoors if possible. Motorboats? Not today. Regulate offshore and onshore ops wisely. Watch the skies, be ready to shift if it worsens. Safe shelters only, skip trees for lightning risk. Unplug gadgets if thunder rumbles, exit water, avoid conductors. Curb tourism and fun outings. Dial back surface and chopper travel.
Agri Tips to Weather the Storm
For farmers, timing is everything with this rain. In Andhra Pradesh, hold off harvesting groundnut till it clears, stash what you’ve got safely. Drain fields of rice, maize, pigeon pea, black gram, green gram, cotton, groundnut, turmeric, ginger, veggies, and banana, coconut, arecanut plantations. Wait for soil to dry before rabi sowing like maize or Bengal gram.
Tamil Nadu: Grab ripe rice and groundnut in dry spells, store safe, drain rice, sugarcane, cotton, black gram, maize, veggies, coconut, banana, black pepper fields. Skip rice transplant or maize sowing in the wet.
Kerala: Snag mature rice now, store it, ensure drains in rice, veggies, banana, coconut, arecanut, cardamom, black pepper.
Coastal Karnataka: Delay rice harvest, move what’s cut to safety, drain rice and coconut, arecanut, black pepper.
Telangana: Harvest cotton pronto, store it, cover or shift maize and soybean in fields with tarps.
Andaman-Nicobar: Stash rice harvest safe, drain rice, veggies, plantations.
Odisha: If rice is 85% mature, harvest and store or tarp it; same for black gram, green gram, maize, veggies like pumpkin, okra, brinjal, bitter gourd, maize cobs, banana bunches. Drain rice, black gram, green gram, pigeon pea, maize, groundnut, cotton, sugarcane, veggies, orchards. Hold rabi sowing till dry.
Jharkhand: Harvest rice in fair weather, store safe.
Bihar: Harvest rice and maize mature, shift safe.
Chhattisgarh: Fair weather for rice, millets, maize, black gram, horse gram, groundnut, pigeon pea harvest, store safe, drain fields.
Gujarat: Dry harvest for rice, groundnut, soybean, black gram, green gram, sesame, maize, pearl millet, veggies like tomato, brinjal, chilli, okra, cucurbits; store safe, drain fields.
Konkan: Safe store rice, finger millet. Madhya Maharashtra: Store rice, soybean, maize, groundnut, pearl millet. Vidarbha: Fair weather harvest early rice, soybean, cotton, store safe. East Rajasthan: Harvest maize, soybean mature, store rice, maize, soybean safe.
For livestock and fish ponds: Shelter animals in rain, balanced feed, store fodder dry. Net pond outlets to drain excess without fish loss.
For winds: Stake veggies, young fruits, horti crops; tie and cover harvested stuff.
Flash Flood Watch
Next 24 hours to 11:30 tomorrow: Moderate to high flash risk in coastal Andhra Pradesh-Yanam watersheds like Guntur, Krishna, West Godavari, East Godavari, Prakasam, Nellore, Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram; Telangana’s Bhadradri Kothagudem, Khammam; Odisha’s Koraput, Rayagada, Kandhamal, Nayagarh, Kendrapara, Mayurbhanj, Puri, Balasore, Gajapati, Ganjam. Runoff and soaking in saturated low spots.
Low risk in Saurashtra-Kutch’s Gir Somnath, Junagadh.
Quick Look at Delhi-NCR Weather
Over the capital region through the 31st, past day saw mins up 1-3°C to 17-20°C (2-4°C above normal), maxes down 1-3°C to 28-29°C (2-4°C below). Cloudy with southeast winds calm to 14 kmph. Today forenoon: cloudy, northeast calm to 8 kmph.
Today: Cloudy, mist-haze evening on, max 27-29°C (2-4°C below), southeast winds to 10 kmph afternoon, down to 5 kmph evening-night.
Tomorrow: Cloudy to partly, morning smog-fog, max 29-31°C near normal, min 17-19°C (1-2°C above), northeast calm to 5 kmph morning, east to 10 kmph afternoon, southeast under 8 kmph evening-night.
30th: Partly cloudy, morning smog-fog, max-min 29-31°C and 17-19°C (mins 1-2°C above, max near), southeast to 10 kmph morning, northeast under 15 kmph afternoon, under 12 kmph evening-night.
31st: Partly to generally cloudy afternoon, morning mist-haze, max-min 30-32°C and 18-20°C (mins 1-3°C above, max near), southwest to 10 kmph morning, northwest under 12 kmph afternoon, southwest under 8 kmph evening-night.
For very heavy rains (12-20 cm isolated): Tamil Nadu today; coastal Andhra-Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh tomorrow; east Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan 30th; Bihar 30th-31st; Sub-Himalayan West Bengal-Sikkim 31st; Saurashtra-Kutch through 31st; Assam-Meghalaya, Arunachal 31st-November 1. Expect urban water logging, underpass closures, traffic jams, minor road damage, structure risks, landslides-mudslides, crop hits, possible river floods in Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal (CWC check). Tips: Scout routes, heed advisories, skip flood-prone spots, shun weak builds.
Stay dry out there, and keep checking updates. If you’re in the path, prioritize safety over everything else.