Important:
- Night temperatures expected to fall 4-7°C below normal in parts of east Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, south Punjab, and south Haryana.
- Broader areas in northwest India plains, east Madhya Pradesh, and north Madhya Maharashtra to see 2-4°C drops below normal.
- Cold wave to severe cold wave likely in isolated spots of east Rajasthan for the next few days.
- Light to moderate rain with isolated heavy falls forecast over Tamil Nadu on November 8-9 and 12-13, and Kerala and Mahe on November 8-9.
- Thunderstorms with lightning anticipated in Tamil Nadu until November 12 and Kerala and Mahe until November 10.
- Delhi NCR to experience mainly clear skies with morning smog or shallow fog, minimum temperatures 9-12°C below normal by 2-4°C.
- Minimum temperatures in Delhi recorded at 10-11°C, below normal by 2-5°C, with maximums at 26-28°C below normal by 1-3°C.
- Agromet tips include draining excess water from fields in Tamil Nadu and protecting crops from cold in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
- No major weather activity expected elsewhere in the country this week.
- Wind speeds in Delhi NCR to reach up to 20 kmph from northwest direction in afternoons.
Weather Patterns Shaping the Chill
As winter knocks early on India’s doorstep, the India Meteorological Department has outlined a scenario where several northern and central states gear up for unusually low nighttime chills. Current observations from the past day show that severe cold conditions have already touched isolated areas in east Rajasthan, setting the tone for what lies ahead. This dip is not fleeting; experts predict it will linger across northwest and nearby central parts for the coming six to seven days, with temperatures stubbornly staying 2-5°C under the usual marks.
Driving these conditions are active weather systems overhead. A low-level trough stretches from the southwest Bay of Bengal through central Kerala, passing over Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. Adding to this, a mid-level cyclonic swirl hovers above the Gulf of Mannar and nearby Comorin waters. Further north, a western disturbance manifests as a cyclonic loop over Jammu and surrounding areas, extending into north Punjab at lower levels. Aloft, a trough in the westerlies cuts along the 72°E longitude up to north of 32°N latitude, at an altitude of about 5.8 km above sea level.
Rain and Storm Alerts for Southern States
While the north shivers, the south braces for wet spells. Scattered showers, ranging from light to moderate, accompanied by thunderstorms, are on the cards at numerous spots in Tamil Nadu. Isolated heavier downpours could intensify the impact during November 8-9 and again on 12-13. Kerala and the union territory of Mahe will see similar activity on November 8-9, with thunderstorms and lightning flashes likely until November 10 in Kerala and Mahe, and up to November 12 in Tamil Nadu.
Beyond these pockets, the rest of the nation should expect largely dry days through the week, offering a contrast to the focused disruptions in the south. Farmers and residents in vulnerable spots, especially urban and hilly terrains, are advised to monitor updates closely, as prolonged forecasts may carry slight variations in precision.
Temperature Trends and Cold Wave Outlook
The cold wave is set to tighten its grip in select areas. From November 8 to 10, conditions conducive to cold waves are probable in portions of east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh. Nighttime lows have already hit below 10°C in east Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, south Punjab, and south Haryana, marking deviations of 4-7°C from norms. Slightly milder but still chilly, other regions like Delhi, east Madhya Pradesh, west Rajasthan, north Madhya Maharashtra, and west Uttar Pradesh report 2-4°C shortfalls.
Looking further, a gradual easing is not immediate. Minimums over many parts of Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh may slide another 2°C in the next two days, stabilizing thereafter for five days. East India faces a 2-4°C decline over four days, followed by steady levels for three more. These shifts underscore the need for precautions against frost and low-temperature stresses on daily life and agriculture.
Spotlight on Delhi and NCR
In the capital region, recent hours have brought a mix of cooling nights and warming days. Minimums dropped up to 1°C, while maximums rose by 1-2°C, settling at 26-28°C for highs and 10-11°C for lows over Delhi. These figures sit 2-5°C and 1-3°C below averages, respectively. Early morning shallow fog blanketed areas, with visibility at Safdarjung dipping to 900 meters between 6:30 and 7:30 IST, improving to 1200 meters by 8:00 IST. Winds from the west, peaking at 16 kmph, dominated, easing to 10 kmph by forenoon.
Ahead, November 8 promises mostly clear conditions, with shallow fog possible at night. Highs will hover near 27-29°C, normal for the season, under northwest winds up to 15 kmph in afternoons, calming below 10 kmph later. On November 9, morning smog or fog joins clear skies, with temps at 27-29°C max and 10-12°C min, both below normal by 1-4°C. Winds pick up to 20 kmph northwest in afternoons.
Similar patterns hold for November 10 and 11: clear with morning haze, highs 27-29°C (1-2°C low), lows 9-11°C (2-4°C low). Afternoon gusts reach 15-20 kmph from northwest, fading evenings. Residents should layer up for brisk mornings and watch for fog-related travel snarls.
Guidance for Farmers and Livestock Keepers
Agricultural communities stand to feel the pinch most. In Tamil Nadu, where rains loom, producers of rice and groundnut should harvest under dry spells and secure yields indoors. Fields of sugarcane, cotton, black gram, maize, vegetables, plus coconut, banana, and black pepper plantations need swift drainage to fend off waterlogging. Banana stems require propping with poles against topples.
Coping with Cold in the North
East Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh farmers can counter frost by evening irrigations on standing crops. Mulching soils and sheeting vegetable seedlings or young fruits with straw or plastic helps retain warmth. For livestock, shelter during downpours, balanced nutrition, and dry fodder storage are essentials. Pond owners should fit netted outlets to manage overflows without fish loss.
Thunderstorm risks call for bolstering horticulture with mechanical aids and staking veggies or fruiters against winds. These steps, drawn from local advisory units, aim to minimize losses in a season of extremes.
Overall, this forecast paints a picture of regional contrasts: soggy south, frosty north, and calm elsewhere. As November unfolds, staying informed via official channels will be key to navigating these shifts smoothly. The interplay of troughs and disturbances reminds us of India’s diverse climes, where one area’s drizzle mirrors another’s deep freeze.
With minimums already testing resilience in plains below 10°C, communities from Punjab to Maharashtra prepare for sustained cool spells. Delhi’s fog-shrouded dawns signal urban adaptations, from extended warmers to adjusted commutes. Southern rains, though brief, could refresh reservoirs but challenge ongoing harvests. In essence, this weather snapshot urges vigilance, blending caution with the everyday rhythm of life across the subcontinent.