Current Weather Status and Extended Range Forecast for the next two weeks 23rd October to 05th November 2025

Government of India
Earth System Science Organization
Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department
Press Release: Dated: 23th October 2025

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Subject: Current Weather Status and Extended Range Forecast for the next two weeks (23rd October to 05th November 2025)

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Source Acknowledgement: Government of India, Ministry of Earth Sciences, India Meteorological Department

1. Salient Observed Features for the week ending 22nd October 2025:

Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon and Commencement of Northeast Monsoon

• Withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from the entire country on 16th October. Simultaneously, the Northeast Monsoon rainfall activity has commenced over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala-Mahe on 16th October, in association with following features: (a) An upper air cyclonic circulation lay over Comorin area & neighbourhood extending upto mid tropospheric levels. (b) Easterly/Northeasterly winds set-in over southern peninsular India, south & adjoining central Bay of Bengal in the lower tropospheric levels. (c) Fairly widespread rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and adjoining area of south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala during the past 24 hrs. Rainfall also occurred at a few places over Rayalaseema and adjoining areas of South Interior Karnataka during the same period. (d) Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu during the same period.

Well-Marked Low Pressure Area and Associated Rainfall

• Heavy to very heavy rainfall spell continued over south peninsular India due to formation of a Well-Marked Low Pressure Area over southwest Bay of Bengal on 21st October and its northwestward movement. Under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal, a Low Pressure Area formed over southwest Bay of Bengal at 0530 hrs IST of 21st October and became a Well-Marked Low Pressure Area over the same region at 0830 hrs IST of the same day. It moved nearly northwestwards and lay over southwest Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu coast at 0830 hrs IST of 22nd October. It further moved nearly northwestwards across north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & south Andhra Pradesh coasts and lay over the north coastal Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood at 1730 hrs IST of 22nd October. It caused isolated extremely heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal on 22nd October, and very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during 16th – 19th & 21st October, Kerala & Mahe on 19th & 20th October, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on 19th & 22nd October, South Interior Karnataka on 19th October, Rayalaseema on 22nd October.

Formation of a Depression over southeast Arabian Sea

• Formation of a Depression over southeast Arabian Sea on 22nd October: Under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea & adjoining Lakshadweep area, a Low Pressure Area formed over southeast Arabian Sea & Lakshadweep area off Kerala-Karnataka coasts at 0530 hrs IST and became Well-Marked Low Pressure Area over the same region at 0830 hrs IST of 18th October. It persisted over the same region on 19th October and lay over southeast Arabian Sea on 20th & 21st October and concentrated into a Depression and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of 22nd October, over the same region, near latitude 8.6°N and longitude 67.6°E.

Other Observed Rainfall

• Heavy rainfall was recorded at isolated places over Konkan & Goa on 16th October, Coastal Karnataka on 17th & 19th – 21st October, South Interior Karnataka on 17th, 20th & 21st October, Rayalaseema on 17th, 18th & 21st October, Lakshadweep on 17th & 18th October, Kerala & Mahe on 18th & 21st October, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Odisha on 20th October.

Temperature Scenario

• Weekly Average Maximum temperature was above normal by 1-3ºC over parts of north and northeast India, and nearly normal over remaining parts of the country during the week. Weekly Average Minimum temperature was nearly normal over the entire country during first half of the week, and above normal by 1-3ºC over parts of west, north, northwest and adjoining central India, and nearly normal over the remaining parts of the country during second half of the week.
• The lowest minimum temperature of 12.0oC had been recorded at Una (Himachal Pradesh) on 20th October 2025 and the highest maximum temperature of 38.0oC had been recorded at Barmer (West Rajasthan) on 18th October, 2025 over the plains of the country during the week.

Rainfall Analysis (01.10.2025 to 22.10.2025)

• The country as a whole, the weekly cumulative All India Rainfall (ending on 22nd October) in % departure from its long period average (LPA) is -13%. All India Seasonal cumulative rainfall % departure during this year’s Post-Monsoon Season Rainfall (01.10.2025 to 22.10.2025) is +17%.

Table 1: Rainfall status (Week and season)

Region	Week 16.10.2025 TO 22.10.2025			Season 01.10.2025 TO 22.10.2025
	Actual (mm)	Normal (mm)	Departure (%)	Actual (mm)	Normal (mm)	Departure (%)
EAST & NORTHEAST INDIA	1.2	24.3	-95%	107.4	107.0	0%
NORTHWEST INDIA	0.3	5.5	-95%	43.7	19.3	+127%
CENTRAL INDIA	4.2	9.7	-56%	48.0	48.6	-1%
SOUTH PENINSULA	57.9	32.4	+79%	125.9	111.5	+13%
THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE	13.1	15.1	-13%	71.5	61.2	+17%

2. Large-scale features:

• Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of La Niña conditions during the upcoming months.
• At present, negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are observed over the Indian Ocean. The latest MMCFS forecast, as well as other climate model forecasts, indicates that the negative IOD conditions are likely to continue during the post-monsoon season.
• MJO index is currently in phase 4 with an amplitude greater than 1. It is likely to cross to phase 5 during the second half of week 1, with amplitude becoming less than 1. It is likely to further propagate to phase 6 with amplitude remaining less than 1 during the initial days of week 2 and is likely to remain in phase 6 with amplitude remaining less than 1, for the remaining duration of week 2.

3. Forecast for the next two weeks (23rd October to 05th November 2025)

Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (23 to 29 October)

Weather Systems, Forecast and Warnings

• The Depression over southeast Arabian Sea moved slowly northeastwards with a speed of 5 kmph during past 6 hours and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 23rd October 2025, over the same region, near latitude 9.8°N & longitude 67.8°E, about 560 km west-southwest of Aminidivi (Lakshadweep) and 910 km southwest of Panjim (Goa). It is likely to move nearly north-northeastwards across southeast Arabian Sea towards eastcentral Arabian Sea during next 24 hours.
• Yesterday’s Well marked Low Pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu coast moved northwestwards and weakened into a low pressure area over north interior Tamil Nadu and adjoining south interior Karnataka at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 23rd October 2025.It lay over south interior Karnataka and neighbourhood at 0830 hrs IST of today. It is likely to continue to move west-northwestwards across south Karnataka and emerge over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea during next 24 hours.
• Yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over south Andaman Sea & neighbourhood lay over southeast Bay of Bengal adjoining South Andaman sea extending upto middle tropospheric levels. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over southeast & adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal on 24th October 2025. It is likely to move west-northwestwards and become more marked during subsequent 24 hours.
• A fresh Western Disturbance likely to impact Western Himalayan Region from 27th October, 2025.

South Peninsular India Forecast (Week 1)

• Light to moderate rainfall/thunderstorm at many/some places with isolated heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu on 23rd & 24th and during 26th -28th; Lakshadweep on 23rd; Kerala & Mahe during 27th & 29th; North Interior Karnataka during 23rd -25th; Telangana during 23rd -25th and on 29th; Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Rayalaseema during 24th -26th and on 29th; South Interior Karnataka on 24th and Coastal Karnataka on 25th & 26th over with isolated very heavy rainfall over South Interior Karnataka on 23rd; Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Rayalaseema on 23rd and on 27th & 28th ; Kerala & Mahe and Coastal Karnataka on 23rd & 24th Oct.
• Thunderstorm with lightning likely over the region during next 5 days.

East & Central India Forecast (Week 1)

• Light to moderate rain/thunderstorm at many places with isolated very heavy rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during 23rd -25th and with isolated heavy rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar Islands on 26th October.
• Thunderstorm with lightning and gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Odisha during next 5 days; and with lightning over East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh during next 5 days.

West India Forecast (Week 1)

• Light to moderate rain/thunderstorm at many places with isolated heavy rainfall over Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra on 23rd & 24th; Gujarat Region and Saurashtra & Kutch on 25th & 26th October.
• Thunderstorm with lightning likely over Konkan & Goa, Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra during next 5 days and over Gujarat Region during 25th & 26th and Saurashtra & Kutch during 24th -26th October.

Warning for Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep & Comorin Area and along & off Karnataka, Kerala and adjoining Tamil Nadu coasts

• Wind warning: Squally wind with speed reaching 45-55 gusting to 65 kmph prevailing around the system center and continue to prevail over Southeast and adjoining Eastcentral Arabian Sea till 25th October. Squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely to prevail over Lakshadweep & Comorin Area and along & off Karnataka, Kerala and adjoining South Tamil Nadu coasts till 25th October.
• Sea condition: Sea Condition is likely to be rough to very rough over Southeast and adjoining Eastcentral Arabian Sea till 25th October. Sea Condition is likely to be rough over Lakshadweep & Comorin Area and along & off Karnataka, Kerala and adjoining South Tamil Nadu coasts till 25th October.
• Fishermen warnings: Fishermen are advised not to venture into Southeast & adjoining Eastcentral Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep & Comorin Area and along & off Karnataka, Kerala and adjoining South Tamil Nadu coasts till 25th October.

Warning for Areas of Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea

• Wind warning: Squally weather with wind speed reaching 35-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph is likely to prevail over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas Andaman Sea & eastcentral Bay of Bengal till 24th October. It is likely to increase becoming squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over central parts of Bay of Bengal on 25th & 26th October. Squally weather with wind speed reaching 35-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph is likely to prevail along & off Tamil Nadu – Andhra Pradesh coasts during 25th & 26th October.
• Sea conditions: Sea condition is likely to be moderate to rough over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas Andaman Sea & eastcentral Bay of Bengal till 24th October till 23rd October evening. Sea condition is likely to be rough over central parts of Bay of Bengal on 25th & 26th October. Sea condition is likely to be moderate to rough over along & off Tamil Nadu – Andhra Pradesh coasts during 25th & 26th October.
• Fishermen Warning: Fishermen are advised not to venture into Southwest, adjoining central Bay of Bengal and along & off Tamil Nadu – Andhra Pradesh coasts 25th October onwards.

Precipitation for week 2 (30th October to 05th November 2025)

• Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Saurashtra & Kutch during few days of the week.
• Heavy rainfall is likely over Orisha, Konkan & Goa, northeast India, Gangetic West Bengal, Gujrat region and Andaman & Nicobar Islands during few days of the week.
• Overall, the rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over Orisha and northeast India, below normal over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Jammu and Kashmir, and near normal over remaining parts of the country.

Temperature forecast for Week 1 (23 to 29 October)

• Minimum Temperature Departures (as on 23-10-2025): markedly above normal (> 5.1°C) at few places over Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh; at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, West Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra and Vidarbha. appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C) at many places over Marathwada; at few places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Gujarat Region, Saurashtra & Kutch and Telangana; at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad and Chhattisgarh. above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at many places over Konkan & Goa and North Interior Karnataka; at few places over Arunachal Pradesh, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Punjab, East Rajasthan, Rayalaseema and Coastal Karnataka; at isolated places over West Rajasthan, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and South Interior Karnataka.
• The lowest minimum temperature of 12.5°C is reported at SIKAR (RAJASTHAN) over the Plains of India
• Minimum temperatures are likely to fall by about 20C over most part of Northwest India during next 2-3 days except East Uttar Pradesh where minimum temperature likely to fall by 3-50C during the same period. However, these will remain 1-30C above normal temperatures during the week.
• Overall, Minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal (by 1-30C) over most parts of the country except south Peninsular India, where these are likely to be below normal to near normal during the week.

Temperature forecast for Week 2 (30th October to 05th November 2025)

• Minimum temperatures are likely to be near normal or slightly below normal over most parts of central and peninsular India. Over northeast India, these are likely to be above normal by about 2-3°C; over east and northwest India these are likely to be above normal by about 1-2°C during the week.